A second risk assessment of the Davis-Meeker Garry oak tree located on Old Highway 99 in Tumwater shows that the tree, at most, posed a “moderate” risk rating under normal weather.
An earlier assessment from 2023 by another arborist found that the historic tree had a “high” risk rating, which Tumwater Mayor Debbie Sullivan used to justify her initial decision to have the tree removed.
Todd Prager & Associates, which the city hired for the new assessment, used a combination of techniques to evaluate the tree. The methods include using a risk assessment matrix, aerial inspection, sonic tomography, risk modelling and root excavation. The report also looked into options to mitigate possible risks of keeping the tree.
The risk matrix evaluated a combination of different scenarios to determine a risk rating for the tree. It factored in the chance of the tree or its stems failing; the likelihood it would impact the hangar, parking area or people on Old Highway 99, as well as the severity if such an impact happened.
The matrix considered 16 situations, pairing certain tree parts with different possible targets, and found that for 13 scenarios, the chance of the tree or a tree part falling and also hitting a target was “unlikely.”
The only scenarios that were different were if the whole tree or a southwest-facing stem fell on the hanger or if a northeast-facing stem fell on someone along Old Highway 99. Even then, the chance of those events happening was “somewhat unlikely” and only yielded a “moderate” risk rating.
With measures to mitigate the risk of the tree, the risk rating for two of those three scenarios would be reduced to low. The scenario of a stem falling on Old Highway 99 poses a “low” to “moderate” risk even with mitigation.
The report recommends a combination of efforts to reduce possible hazards through reduction pruning, which involves reducing the tree’s crown; root management through the use of mulching, soil testing and planting of adjacent native plants; the installation of support systems, such as cables, bolts or props, as well as continued monitoring.
Sonic tomography tests, which visualize the interior of the tree using sound waves, were also conducted on eight parts at different heights of the tree. The first report only contained a singular tomography test taken near the base of the tree.
One of the eight readings, taken at the same height of the first sonic tomography test, affirmed earlier findings.
A summary of the results stated that there was “significant compromised wood” at 1.6 feet up the main stem due to decay from fungi.
The arborists also used modelling software to determine that there was between 14% and 21% loss of strength around that section of the stem.
Sonic tomography tests on other parts of the tree — two more on the main stem and others on the codominant stems — only found low to minimal strength loss, and even no strength loss at one part of the codominant stem.
Additional modeling through another software called TreeCalc found that the amount of wood at the base of the tree had more than six times the minimum strength required to support the crown.
The conditions of the roots were also assessed through air excavation, which employed the use of compressed air to remove fine soil and manual removal of river cobble.
While a 1-inch diameter dead root was found, the arborist team did not find signs of decay and saw no visible cause to suspect decay on the underside of the roots.
The Davis-Meeker tree was partly named after environmentalist Jack Davis. His efforts to preserve the tree led to the rerouting of Old Highway 99 in 1984. The tree is believed to be around 400 years old, according to the City of Tumwater’s website, and used to serve as a trail marker for the historic Cowlitz Trail, a northern branch of the Oregon Trail.
The idea of removing the tree came about in May 2023 when an 18-inch diameter branch fell from a height of about 43 feet up the tree.
Kevin McFarland, of Sound Urban Forestry LLC, released a tree risk assessment report in October 2023, which found the tree posed a “high” risk rating and therefore recommended the removal of the tree.
As the tree was listed on the city’s historic register, city staff had to delist the tree from the register, which they initially thought required the approval of the city council.
Before the issue was brought to the council, the city’s Historic Preservation Commission recommended to retain the tree in the register on April 18, 2024.
It was expected that the issue would be forwarded to the council next, but Sullivan took it upon herself when she announced on May 14, 2024, that the city would remove the tree through an administrative decision.
Due to the effort of community members who wanted to preserve the tree, a Thurston County Superior Court judge issued a temporary restraining order against the tree’s removal on May 24, 2024. The plaintiff, a group called Save the Davis-Meeker Garry Oak, continues to this day the legal battle to keep the tree standing.
Sullivan eventually decided on June 4, to pause the removal of the tree and agreed to hire another arborist to reassess the tree, which they did so when the city hired Todd Prager’s firm on Aug. 22, 2024.
The full report can be viewed in Tumwater's website.
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5th street
Perhaps the issue is that it poses a risk to the Port's plan to expand the airport and that is the real driving issue here. The success of the Port's plans not public safety.
Friday, February 14 Report this
RondaLarsonKramer
Our team (i.e., Save the Davis Meeker Garry Oak), thinks the reporter did an excellent job on this article. It reflects a thorough understanding of the risk assessment report, which is a very long document. Thank you! We also believe that Todd Prager & Associates' report is outstanding and a model for other arborists. The reader can find a video of Prager's root crown air excavation (using compressed air) here: https://davis-meeker-oak.org/videos-photos-podcasts#air-excavation-of-roots-by-arborists
Saturday, February 15 Report this
RondaLarsonKramer
Just to follow up, our arborists believe that Rick Till's report from Prager's office has raised the standards of modern tree care and excellence. Additionally, so that the reader is aware, the river cobbles around the base of the tree that had been there for years were placed there intentionally by volunteer arborists a long time ago. The stones may have helped the tree out immensely so that the roots could breathe, in light of the unhealthy amount of soil around the base of the tree that had been piled too high at some point in the past. The placement of the river cobbles was, at the time, a cutting-edge technique.
Saturday, February 15 Report this
RondaLarsonKramer
@5th street, thank you for saying that so well. Air traffic expansion is an evolving issue as we speak. If anyone is interested, you can sign the petition to stop the Port from turning the Olympia Airport into a regional air cargo distribution center, which would spread significant amounts of both noise and unhealthy ultrafine particulate matter (UFP) all over our beautiful county. Port Commissioners will be deciding whether to adopt the Plan on Monday, March 24, 2025, after a public hearing at 5:30 p.m. at Olympics Room, 626 Columbia Street NW, Suite 1B, Olympia, WA 98501. Join the Facebook group Stop Olympia Airport Growth. Sign the petition here: https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/stop-olympia-airport-growth?clear_id=true.
Saturday, February 15 Report this
mathisje
This validates Macfarland's earlier report. There was weakness and risk. MscFarland was not contracted to conduct a study with the funding, time and tools provided for in the second opinion. He called the risk as potentially high and called for further study. Those who so willfully disparaged his work owe him an apology.
New report says tree needs a lot of 'fixing' to remove most, but not all, the moderate risk. Where is the money coming from and from which pot of money? Will the City's insurer cover the risk? I doubt the family of some killed by the tree will care much if the risk was low or moderate.
How about a Go Fund Me? Let's see how much community support the tree really has.
Saturday, February 15 Report this
RondaLarsonKramer
@mathisje, your statements are quite wrong. On June 28, 2023, Kevin McFarland in an internal email wrote, "it is my opinion that the tree does not pose a extreme or high risk at the moment but there is a need for further assessment work to provide a complete risk assessment . . . . Considering the species of tree which can be structurally sound or not prone to failure if the main stem is compromised (somewhat) the existence of a decay column or cavity within the base up through the main stem may not be a total reason to condemn the tree." McFarland then contracted with a second arborist to do that "further study." That second arborist worked for Tree Solutions and on September 5, 2023, issued a memo stating that there is "more sound wood than is required to support the tree. . . . It is my opinion that this tree should be managed as a veteran tree . . . ." But mysteriously, McFarland's final report dated October 10, 2023, gave a conclusion in direct opposition to these prior statements. He rated the tree's condition as "poor," gave a risk rating as "High," and concluded, "Based on my findings and information I have been provided, I am recommending removal." Scott Baker, owner of Tree Solutions and one of the fathers of modern-day risk assessment methodology, was so taken aback by McFarland's baseless final conclusion that Baker wrote to the assistant city attorney to say that McFarland's report "is an embarrassment to any knowledgeable arborist." All supporting documentation for my comment can be found linked on the home page at TumwaterOak.org.
Saturday, February 15 Report this
mathisje
Rhonda;
Since you have more a grasp of details, how much was McFarland paid for his evaluation as compared to Prager? Was it even 10%? Which is a worse choice, calling a moderate risk a high risk, or calling it low risk? I never did see the reports from the arborists who used drones and a sonic screwdriver.
Regardless, now it's time to pay the piper if the tree is to be saved. Sounds like it needs a haircut, pedicure and a face lift. If you start a go-fund-me, I'll chip in $50.
Saturday, February 15 Report this