There was a study conducted a few years ago, in collaboration with a congressional candidate, a mayoral candidate, an independent expenditure campaign directed against a gubernatorial candidate, and a candidate for county commissioner. The results showed that yard signs did prove to increase a campaign's vote total, but not by much. Between 1 and 2 percentage points on average. I'd say if it's really neck and neck it could be worth the investment. If you're comfortable then get a small amount for supporters to put in their yards and for sign waving. If you're the underdog, get a few to start with for high traffic areas and then put your resources into things like direct mail, phone banking, and fundraising.
Personally, I'd love to live in a world without them. Really wasteful (can't be recycled currently so just going in the landfill), not all that effective, and a distraction when candidates get fixated on whether they're seeing more of their own or their opponent's signs. Signs don't vote, people do, so go knock on doors and hit the phones instead.
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