Drop in enrollment projected for Olympia School District

Overall enrollment in the Olympia School District is anticipated to decrease to approximately 8,483 students in 2033-34 from 9,470 in 2025-26, data showed.

The district contracted with BERK Consulting for an updated forecast of student enrollment, based on birth rate and population growth trends for the 2025-26 through 2033-34 school years. The consultants presented the projections at a meeting on Thursday, Oct. 23. 

“We are anticipating a decrease in enrollment over the next 10 years, sort of a kind of a gradual decline at the beginning. … The projection is about 1,000 students below where you're currently at right now by the 2033-34 school year,” said Assoicate Principal Kevin Gifford of BERK Consulting in Seattle. 

District enrollment for each future year was calculated by applying survivorship ratios per grade, combined with projected kindergarten enrollment.  

Survival rates are calculated by comparing the size of a grade-level cohort in a given school year to the size of the previous grade in the past year. 

Kindergarten-to-birth ratios are commonly used to estimate future kindergarten enrollment based on projected births. 

Birth rates declined in the district to 523 in 2024 from 646 in 2012, according to the report, which relied on data from the Washington State Department of Health.  

The report also stated the school district's population has grown steadily since 2010, though at a slower rate (+17.1%) than Thurston County (20.3%). 

Headcounts record every student enrolled, no matter the time spent in school, and is different from full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment, which reflects each student's level and type of enrollment. 

Enrollment trends 

Student enrollment beyond kindergarten was projected using cohort survival rates, also called grade progression rates. 

Survival rates for each grade were established based on the enrollment from past years, and the average rate for the previous three years was used to control annual variability. 

The document contains data that shows a steady student enrollment in the district during the second half of the previous decade.  

Total annual average enrollment increased to 9,975 students in the 2019-20 school year from 9,713 students during the 2015-16 school year.

However, enrollment declined during the 2020-21 school year due to the pandemic. Enrollment rose slightly in 2024-25, but was below pre-pandemic levels.  

The district contracted the enrollment forecast service as part of its Long Range Facility Master Plan.