Intercity Transit developing a better forecasting tool 

Intercity Transit is working to upgrade a planning tool to help forecast its long-term finances and level of service. 

The Intercity Transit Authority authorized General Manager Emily Bergkamp to hire a firm to develop the tool during a meeting on Wednesday, July 2. 

The agency is hiring a firm for $209,948 through a qualified vendor list from consulting firm WSP USA, Inc. 

Intercity Transit Development Director Peter Stackpole said the current forecasting tool was developed in 2004. While it has been periodically updated, he said it can no longer adequately support the agency’s planning needs.

“It relies on static models that require manual updates to the key inputs — things like service hours, fleet size and staffing, and that makes it very time consuming and prone to inaccuracies,” Stackpole said. 

“There's also limited documentation on how the inputs and outputs have been used over time, and that makes the tool both difficult to interpret, update or expand.” 

Stackpole said the updated tool would have to integrate both current and historical financial costs, and operational metrics to generate projections of future service costs and revenues. 

He said the tool would aid in scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, which involves modelling changes, such as adjusting service hours or labor hours. 

Authority members backed the move, agreeing an upgrade was due. 

Asked if staff anticipate any difficulties implementing the new tool, Stackpole said it “should be fairly straightforward” and they don’t anticipate any issues. 

He said the firm selected for the job has extensive experience implementing similar tools for other agencies. He added that staff is capable of handling the project and are constantly monitoring the inputs for the model. 

A draft of the tool should be delivered within the next two months, while a complete version should be available for testing by January 2026.